The Toyota RAV4 is not going to be the best selling vehicle in the United States this year. Toyota’s popular SUV first overtook the Ford F-150 back in 2024, and has spent little time sitting on dealer lots since.
However, severe supply shortages mean the RAV4 may be harder to come by this year. The vehicle has undergone a complete refresh for the 2026 model year, becoming hybrid only and requiring extensive factory retooling as a result.
Those changeovers delayed the vehicle’s launch until February 2026, and have severely restricted deliveries since. US deliveries are reportedly down 40% already year on year, and Toyota predicts a deficit of 55,000 sales in 2026.
You can’t exactly pick up an older RAV4 either. Toyota claims almost all of its RAV4 stock is gone, with a 97.6% turn rate in May. While there are Toyota RAV4 alternatives around, and Toyota itself is pushing customers towards other vehicles like the BZ, Crown Signia, 4Runner, Corolla Cross, and Tacoma, many people are apparently sitting on a waiting list hoping that Toyota’s best seller becomes available.
Dealerships are reporting extensive backlogs, with some reporting over 800 customers are currently sitting on their waitlist. Others claim that they are pre-selling inbound allocations long before the vehicles are due to be delivered.
It isn’t all bad news. Toyota could have rushed production of the new model and mitigated the shortfall somewhat, but quality control would likely suffer in the process. The Japanese OEM’s seems happy to take a bit of a financial hit to protect the RAV4’s excellent reputation and ensure the launch of the new generation isn’t marred by preventable issues.
So what’s Toyota currently doing about the RAV4 shortage?
The RAV4 shortage may not last forever
While the RAV4 shortage may be bad news for potential buyers, it is good news for the American automotive industry. While many of the vehicles were traditionally imported from Canada and Japan, the company’s Kentucky-based plant has been marked as the epicenter of RAV4 production. For the time being at least.
Around 40,000 of the vehicles are set to roll off the production line in Georgetown this year, with that volume expected to increase to 60,000 in 2027. However, Kentucky won’t lead the way forever. Once the retooling process is complete in its Canadian and Japanese factories, foreign RAV4 production is likely to significantly outpace domestic production once again.
The RAV4 shortage has also had a significant effect on used vehicle prices, with many used RAV4 hybrids now costing thousands of dollars more than their original MSRPs. Carvana recently listed a 2025 RAV4 with 5,600 miles on it for over $7,000 more than its original selling price. Things get even worse at CarMax with a 2024 model listed for over $5,000 more than it originally sold for, despite having 29,000 miles on its odometer.
It isn’t just the shortage ramping up RAV4 Hybrid prices. A combination of increased fuel costs due to the less than stable geopolitical situation we’re currently living thorough, and skepticism still ruling EVs out for many people, have led to increased demand. Toyota generally produces the best hybrids on the market, and the RAV4 is more versatile than its other options.
Unfortunately, neither the supply side or the demand side looks like it will improve in 2026.
